• سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
younes khodaparast; Teymour Mohamadi; Hossein Tavakolian
Abstract
Increasing oil consumption efficiency in the household and production sectors, as well as improving oil production technology, are among the most important factors that can improve the economic situation of oil-rich countries. Therefore, in this paper, the effects of oil consumption productivity (demand ...
Read More
Increasing oil consumption efficiency in the household and production sectors, as well as improving oil production technology, are among the most important factors that can improve the economic situation of oil-rich countries. Therefore, in this paper, the effects of oil consumption productivity (demand shocks) and technological oil production shocks (supply shocks) on macroeconomic variables are investigated in the form of the Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. Annual data for the years 1352-1396 have been used to estimate the model parameters. The results show that oil consumption efficiency shocks in the household and production sectors have a positive and significant effect on oil exports, oil investment, total employment, and government spending. However, the shocks of oil consumption efficiency in the household sector reduce oil production and household’s oil consumption and increase inflation, while the effect of the shocks of oil consumption efficiency in the production sector on these three variables is inverse. Also, technological oil production shocks have a positive effect on oil investment, oil production and export, non-oil employment, total consumption, government spending, and inflation, and in contrast, slightly reduce employment in the oil sector and oil consumption. Given that the above three shocks have positive effects on oil exports, oil investment, employment, government revenue, and even the level of consumption and non-oil production, appropriate planning and policy-making that stimulates consumer productivity and improves oil production technology should be on the agenda of policymakers.
Hossein Tavakolian; Seyed Amir Etemadi; Reza Tehrani
Abstract
The importance of oil price volatility spillover has significantly increased since the globalization and financial markets’ interaction have expanded. Based on this, the oil price impact on financial markets, as an exogenous variable, is also increased. In this paper, we study the “volatility ...
Read More
The importance of oil price volatility spillover has significantly increased since the globalization and financial markets’ interaction have expanded. Based on this, the oil price impact on financial markets, as an exogenous variable, is also increased. In this paper, we study the “volatility spillover of Brent oil price return effects on return of Iran and USA financial markets during 2008-2016 using weekly data. Results show that volatility of Brent oil price return spillovers S&P500 and related industries to oil indexes in USA, so it does not spillover Tehran exchange price index return and related industries to oil indexes in Iran. Also financial market indexes return do not spillover together in short-time.
